Excess Deaths | The Truth behind the ‘PANDEMIC’

Review of National Records of Scotland (NRS) Mortality Stats

1.0 Introduction

Scotland suffered over 6,000 Excess Deaths in 2020. 10.5% more than average.

What caused the excess? Our health leaders and the mainstream media would have us believe it was ‘COVID-19’ that caused the extra deaths. But was it really? This paper will examine weekly deaths in Scotland by location, age and condition to uncover the truth behind the numbers.

All of the data referenced here today is taken directly from the Scottish Governments official statistics agency, National Records of Scotland - our equivalents to the ONS.

EXCESS deaths shown in RED. Negative Excess - lower than baseline - shown in GREEN.

The first thing that strikes me is that in the first 12 weeks of 2020 we experienced LOWER than average deaths. From January to March 2020, Scotland had 481 FEWER deaths than average. Which is strange, given a deadly coronavirus was said to be circulating the globe, running wild with no restrictions or containment measures in place.

Then we go into lockdown on thev23rd of March 2020, Prime Minister Boris Johnson addresses the Nation, telling us that we MUST stay at home and we enter National Lockdown.

What happens next is more than strange. The initial 3 week lockdown gets extended twice, running for a total of 9 weeks. In those 9 weeks, Scotland suffers over 4,500 excess deaths. Think about that. 481 fewer deaths before lockdown and then 4,500 EXTRA deaths during the lockdown. The lockdown was meant to protect us; why did we then suffer thousands of extra deaths?

Lockdown then ends on the 29th of May 2020 and the county begins to open up again. Logic would have you believe that opening back up would result in the virus spreading once again - resulting in more excess deaths. The opposite happens. Through summer 2020, death rates in Scotland return to normal. In fact, LOWER than normal during July & August.

This, despite shops & hospitality opening back up, pubs re-opening, schools going back in August and Rishi Sunak’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’.

Then the Flu jag is rolled out in late September, In record numbers. What follows, is a second wave of ‘COVID’ and a return to excess death rates in October & November. What was the trigger? I remember people were blaming the schools. Blaming school children for spreading the ‘virus’. Despite the fact schools went back in August with no increase in cases or excess deaths. The Scottish Government would also publish a paper in winter 2020, confirming that children were NOT a vector in transmission of COVID-19.

At the time, I never made the connection. But the trigger began on the 26th of September 2020. The second wave would then be followed immediately by a third wave - a carbuncle if you will.

The trigger for the third wave could not be any clearer. It starts after the 8th of December 2020 - and would become even more evident into 2021. What was it Matt Hancock said agin at December 2020 “When do we deploy the new variant…” ?

2.0 Care Home Excess Deaths in 2020

To examine the root cause of the 6,000 excess deaths, it is important to take a closer look at deaths by location. First up Care Homes

As with all-cause mortality, we see that deaths in Care Homes were in negative excess in early 2020. In weeks 1-12 Scotland saw 204 FEWER deaths than normal in our Care Homes. This remember, with no lockdown and no restrictions, whilst a deadly new coronavirus was said to be sweeping the country, targeting our elderly and infirm.

Then the lockdown is ordered and what happens next is, for me, thee most alarming surge in excess deaths witness at any point of the ‘PANDEMIC’. We suffer 5,000 deaths in our Care Homes during the 9 weeks of lockdown. 2,400 excess deaths. 2,400 MORE deaths than normal. A literal doubling of deaths through April 2020.

Why? How could this happen during Lockdown, when we had allegedly erected a ‘ring of steel’ around Care Homes to protect our most vulnerable. Protocols had been put in place to ‘protect’ Care Homes. All visitation had been stopped, social interaction in the homes stopped, Care Staff were following strict hygiene guidance, hand sanitizing, wearing PPE and avoiding social contact at home. No-one was bringing ‘COVID’ into the Care Homes, so what was causing this doubling of deaths in our Care Homes during lockdown?

COVID-19 was cast as the culprit, with over half of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 occurring in our Care Homes (shown below in light blue)

What is also important here, is to look at exactly HOW the Scottish Government was counting ‘COVID’ deaths. The method is shown in this extract from the National Records of Scotland report:

“All people who had a positive test for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of their first positive test” and

“All deaths were COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate by the doctor who certified the death. This includes cases where the doctor noted that there was SUSPECTED or PROBABLE coronavirus infection involved in the death” Even without a positive test to confirm.

Public Health Scotland Director, Nick Phinn admitted to over-counting of COVID19 while providing evidence at the UK COVID-19 Inquiry.

This is a critical point, especially as at the same time the Scottish Government passed the Emergency Coronavirus (Scotland) Act, giving themselves special powers in a national emergency. One of the legislative changes made, was in the procedures around Death Certificates. Under Scottish Law, a Death Certificate must be filled out by the Medical Doctor attending the deceased. Easements were made Under the Emergency Coronavirus Act, a Medical Doctor no longer needed to attend a dead body, to confirm Death and Cause of Death, they could now complete a death certificate remotely - without physically seeing the body - if COVID was suspected to be involved.

Think about that for a second.

Let’s say a resident passes away in a Care Home during Lockdown. Care Home manager calls the residents GP to inform them of the death. Where COVID was SUSPECTED or PROBABLE to have been involved in the death, the GP could register COVID-19 as the cause of death on the deceased's Death Certificate, without attending the body in person.

At that time, most bodies - especially those where COVID was ‘involved’ were not subjected to an autopsy - due to infection control measures - and cremations were preferred ahead of burials as the preferred funeral method - again due to infection control concerns - and bodies would be released quicker for cremations than for burials - almost forcing families to go down the cremation route.

What we do know for sure is, that immediately before the lockdown, Care Homes had no excess deaths. During lockdown, Care Homes reported a doubling of deaths and then after lockdown, death rates in Scottish Care Homes went back to normal - or even below normal. Why did the excess only occur during lockdown? During lockdown is when Care Home residents should have been at their safest - protected by the lockdown. Yet only AFTER the lockdown, when families were once again permitted to visit and advocate for their loved ones in Care, did we see Care Home deaths stabilise and then run at negative excess right through to autumn 2020.

The Flu and COVID19 vaccinations would then be implemented in Care Homes during winter 2020/21. Let’s now look at how mortality patterns looked in other settings during 2020.

3.0 Hospital ‘Excess’ Deaths in 2020

Our political leaders told us that our hospitals were over-run during the COVID pandemic. A rhetoric that was rammed down our throats daily by the mainstream media.

The reality, in Scotland, was that hospital admissions in 2020 were LOWER than average. Death rates were LOWER than average - lower in fact, in 2020 than at any time in the previous 10 years.

In 2020, Scottish hospitals saw 1,080 FEWER deaths than the 5-Year-Average.

As with our Care Homes, 2020 started with NEGATIVE excess in our Hospitals in weeks 1-12, 527 fewer deaths than average. This at a time remember, when a deadly coronavirus was said to be running riot, with no restrictions or containment measures in place.

Then came the lockdown - and with it a SPIKE in hospital deaths - but only AFTER the national lockdown was enforced on 23rd March 2020. The ‘SPIKE’ only lasted 5 weeks however, and by May hospital deaths were into negative excess, where they would remain until October 2020.

STAY AT HOME - PROTECT THE NHS

Was the message. Which certainly seemed to work, for the NHS. All non- critical treatments suspended, Elective surgeries postponed and the public told to stay at home and NOT attend Accident and Emergency wards unless it was life threatening

Just what would be the consequences elsewhere to the NHS shutting its doors to the general public. The answer is best found in Deaths AT HOME:

4.0 Excess Deaths AT HOME in 2020

DIE AT HOME - SAVE THE NHS might have been a more appropriate slogan.

5,000 Excess Deaths at Home in Scotland during 2020. 32.5% more than average. All whilst hospitals were sitting half empty, people were dying, in excess, by the thousands in their own home. 5,000 in Scotland, 50,0000 in England.

These were not ‘COVID’ deaths either. Of the 5,079 excess deaths registered AT HOME in 2020, only 334 were reported as deaths INVOLVING Covid-19 (just 6.6%)

Was Excess Deaths AT HOME , the real pandemic?

We were told by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and the Health Secretary Jeane Freeman NOT to go to hospital. A party line parroted by the mainstream media. The Scottish Press all compliant in terrifying the nation into staying home.

Deaths in hospital from all-causes were down in 2020. 1,300 FEWER cancer deaths in our hospitals, 900 fewer deaths from heart attacks and strokes in our hospitals.

COVID didn’t ‘CURE’ these diseases. The shut down of hospitals didn’t prevent these deaths from occurring. Instead, they just displaced them to AT HOME deaths, where Cancer deaths were up by 2,000 in 2020. Circulatory deaths up by 1,152.

These people died at home. Alone, afraid & in many cases, without the hospital medical treatment that could have saved their lives.

Hospital deaths down by 1,000. Deaths at home up by 5,000. This wasn’t just displacement of deaths. This was extra deaths, caused by DENIED MEDICAL TREATMENT.

Remember STAY AT HOME - PROTECT THE NHS

5.0 Cancer Deaths in 2020

In 2020, Scotland suffered 16,501 deaths from cancer. Which was 4.4% higher than average. Some medical experts have suggested that the true cancer death toll may in fact have been higher, as cancer deaths may have been misattributed - or death certificates misattributed - to COVID-19. For example We see from the NRS death by location data that cancer deaths in Care Homes were down by 524 in 2020.

Whilst the total figure of cancer deaths reported in 2020 seems around normal, the pattern of occurrence is less so. Once again, we see this SPIKE in cancer deaths immediately after the lockdown. We also see inverse rates of cancer deaths into the winter months - as discussed above, the probability of misattribution would need to be investigated - cancer deaths didn’t just stop in care homes.

6.0 Circulatory Deaths in 2020

After cancer, the second biggest cause of death in Scotland is circulatory conditions - heart attacks and strokes. With 15,538 deaths registered in 2020, just 1.1% higher than average.

We see the same pattern here again. Negative excess deaths in weeks 1-12 (before the lockdown) and then a spike in excess deaths immediately after the lockdown. The Scottish Government and our Health Authorities cannot hide from this phenomenon. We see all-cause and all-location increases in death immediately after the National Lockdown was enforced on 23rd of March 2020.

Did the lockdown cause more harm to the Scottish population than the coronavirus did?

7.0 ‘Other’ Respiratory Deaths in 2020

Scotland’s third largest cause of death is Respiratory illness, with over 7,000 deaths per year, on average. In 2020 however, only 5,579 respiratory deaths were registered, 22.8% LOWER than average.

This still strikes me as odd. Even in weeks 1-12, before the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 a pandemic, deaths from respiratory illness were in negative excess. This, again, at a time when a novel coronavirus was said to be circulating - and yet the first death in Scotland to be attributed to COVID-19 was not until the 13th of March 2020.

After the COVID pandemic was declared and we entered National Lockdown, no further deaths from influenza were registered in Scotland for the rest of 2020. Influenza just dropped off the map.

Experts have claimed that this was caused by viral displacement. That COVID-19 became the dominant respiratory illness, suppressing ‘Other’ respiratory illnesses along the way. This would stay the same through winter 20/21 and winter 21/22.

For most people COVID-19 was a mild or moderate illness. Presenting as an influenza-like virus, with influenza-like symptoms and as the UK Government confirmed, carried an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.096 ( 1 death per 1,040 infections) which is also, ironically, very similar to the IFR for influenza.

Was misattribution of ‘OTHER’ Respiratory illnesses as COVID-19 a factor in the inflation of the number of COVID deaths in 2020?

8. 0 Dementia Deaths in 2020

Dementia is the 4th largest cause of death in Scotland. During 2020, we recorded 6,437 deaths to dementia, which was 2.9% higher than average

Once again we see the same phenom. Negative excess dementia deaths in early 2020, then we jump into huge excess immediately after lockdown is implemented. Lockdown ends and dementia deaths return to normal.

The same pattern as in Care Homes. Why did so many Care Home residents with dementia die during the lockdown? These dementia deaths were not recorded as COVID deaths, they were reported as dementia deaths. So what caused the excess?

On the 13th of March 2020, Health Secretary Jeane Freeman & Chief Medical Officer, Catherine Calderwood issued the following directorate to the Scottish Care sector

Included within the directorate, was the following instructions:

4. Anticipatory Care Plans should be in place for as many residents as possible (and ideally all residents) in these settings

“Do Not Resuscitate paperwork should be in place where appropriate and communicated appropriately with patients or carers”

“It may be judicious to ensure that just-in-case medication is prescribed for high risk residents.”

“Similarly verification of death paperwork for appropriate ill patients may help staff to anticipate and manage death and minimise clinician contacts”

“Managing COVID-19 cases in long term care settings.

Patients suspected of having symptoms of COVID-19 should be managed in line with other HPS guidance and specifically should be isolated in their own room.

It is not advised that residents in long term care are admitted to hospital for ongoing management but are managed within their current setting”

In summary, the recommendations from the Scottish Government to Care Homes during lockdown was; No family visits permitted, Do Not Resuscitate paperwork to be put in place for all residents. End of Life medication to be ordered for at-risk residents. Death certificate paperwork to be readied. Residents that get sick to be isolated in their rooms and they should NOT be transferred to hospital.

The end result, 5,000 deaths in Scottish Care Homes over the 9 weeks of lockdown. 2,400 Excess Deaths - with just over half of them attributed to COVID-19. What really caused these deaths? Was it the treatment protocols put in place by Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Government?

Links to all of these documents are provided within the description.

Freeman Care Directorate

9.0 Deaths attributed to COVID in 2020

To complete the Top 5 causes of death in Scotland during 2020, we arrive at COVID-19. In total, 6048 deaths were attributed to COVID-19 in 2020.

The first ‘COVID’ death was reported on the 13th of March 2020. By the time the National Lockdown was enforced on 23rd of March , just 14 deaths had been attributed to COVID-19 in Scotland.

An entire country in lockdown, following just 14 deaths. During the 9 weeks of lockdown itself, we would then suffer 3,800 ‘COVID’ deaths. Whilst in lockdown, with 5 million Scots confined to their homes, with no interaction with others - yet somehow we saw COVID deaths peak at over 600 per week in Mid-April, some 4 weeks AFTER the lockdown was enforced.

Then, after lockdown ended on the 29th of May 2020, COVID deaths fell away and we went through June, July & August with only a handful of COVID deaths. No lockdown, no restrictions and no COVID deaths or excess deaths that summer.

10.0 Pre-existing conditions & comorbidities

93% of deaths attributed to COVID-19 occurred in people with serious pre-existing conditions. Life-limiting comorbidities such as Dementia, ischaemic heart disease and chronic respiratory diseases. The average age of ‘COVID’ deaths was 80 years old, with 2 pre-existing comorbidites.

Those people’s lives very much mattered. But can we really say that an 84 year old care home resident suffering from dementia and heart disease or cancer, should really be registered as a COVID death after passing away within 28 days of a positive test or where COVID-19 was SUSPECTED?

Was the Scottish Government and their agencies; National Records of Scotland and Public Health Scotland over-counting ‘COVID’ deaths? Misattributing other causes of death to COVID based on protocols and changes to death certification processes?

11.0 Conclusion

No matter how we look at the data, the story tells itself. 6,178 excess deaths in Scotland during 2020. The majorities of those excess deaths occurring during the National Lockdown. With subsequent waves following the Tier restrictions and the pharmaceutical interventions in late 2020.

The Scottish COVID-19 Inquiry is currently ongoing, but it is not looking at the numbers in forensic detail. Lord Brailsford needs to see this video, read my paper and set about finding answers to the questions raised here today.

Thanks to all of you that stayed with me until the end. Death is such a dark subject to cover - and these figures all represent a person, taken too soon.

Please continue to share my work with your friends and family. We cannot let what happened be buried in the mist of time.

Link to the YouTube video of this post